Guest Interview: Mar. 23, 2007
Volume #2/Issue #63
The Kentucky Derby can be an exhausting journey for a handicapper.
Walking, dragging, and trolling through countless prep races, past perform-
ances, and opinions will make you crazy. It can be overwhelming and
frustrating. But this week we are joined by Kentuckian Dick Downey of
the Downey Profile. He is a regular featured writer and handicapper on
Bloodhorse online. He runs the Downey Profile which breaks down the
Kentucky Derby from January until May. His resume of narrowing
down the Derby to a couple of horses is widely successful.
Sit back and enjoy Dick Downey and his Derby observations!
Part I: Captain Downey!
Da' Goat: Where are you from?
Dick Downey: I grew up in Simpson County, Kentucky. We lived close to the Hog Eye community. My sixth-grade class had 18 kids.
DG: Where do you live now?
DD: I moved to town. Bowling Green, Kentucky, in Warren County.
DG: How did you first get involved in horse racing?
DD: My mom and dad wanted to set a good example, so they took us kids to Churchill Downs.
DG: How many tracks have you been too? List them…
DD: Churchill Downs
Keeneland
Turfway Park
Ellis Park
Kentucky Downs
Fair Grounds
Calder
Gulfstream Park
Tampa Bay Downs
Pimlico
Saratoga
Belmont Park
Oaklawn Park
Lone Star Park
Longchamp
The Curragh
DG: Favorite?
DD: Day in and day out, I'll take Churchill Downs, the working man's track.
DG: Worst?
DD: That's an easy one. Pimlico. The roof leaks when it rains, and sometimes the tellers run out of cash.
DG: Got any crazy stories from them?
DD: I'd prefer not to go into what happened at Keeneland back when I was in law school at UK. Better not go there. It was the late '70's.
DG: Rumor has it, you didn’t miss any days last year at Churchill Downs? Is this true? And what does it take to accomplish this?
DD: Actually, I never miss a day of the Kentucky Downs live meet. That meet is a diamond in the rough.
DG: What jobs have you held in the industry?
DD: My professional life has been dedicated to being a lawyer for individuals who have specific legal problems. I'm not a do-gooder. I just like to help people. But I wanted something else to do.
DD: Several years ago, I was at Pimlico the day before the Preakness, watching the pundits on track TV. I said to my friend Mindy, "You know why they're talking on TV? Because they got the job." So, I made my own job. That's what everyone in my family does. We make our own jobs.
DD: My media credential for this year's Kentucky Derby, other than Media Center access, gives me roof access for the race. My dream is realized.
Part II: The Downey Profile
DG: You run a website about horse racing: What is it called?
DD: TheDowneyProfile.com, and that's the web address.
DG: How did you first start it?
DD: There was money paid to a server for a template, then I started typing.
DG: Give us the meat and potatoes of what it is about…
DD: Actually, in 1997, I began a statistical analysis of what it takes to win the Kentucky Derby. I found things that mattered. It took hundreds of hours of research, while my wife Cindy looked at me like I was crazy.
DG: How does someone sign up for your site?
DD: There is a ton of free stuff there, including Picks for Derby prep races. You don't have to sign up for that. I don't collect email addresses, then bombard people with sales pitches. I get so tired of getting that myself, so I don't do that. I don't solicit ad sales. I get up early and post free material every day from early February through the Belmont Stakes.
DD: To sign up for the Downey Profile, which is the result of my craziness, go to the Join Now horseshoe on the left sidebar. You'll see the prices. I have to earn money to justify the time I spend on this.
DG: What does a subscriber get?
DD: The high-dollar subscription, currently $24.95, is a week-by-week analysis of what happened in Derby prep races, the Downey Profile Rankings, and a bunch of other stuff, including my own Derby, Preakness and Belmont Picks.
DD: There's a certain way horses have to run to win the Derby. I spend a lot of time looking at every contender and whether that horse can run the way he needs to run.
DG: I enjoy your articles on your website: What do you write about in these articles?
DD: On the free pages, I write about workouts, race predictions, race results, and everything in between. If it relates to the Derby Trail, I write about it. I haven't counted them lately, but I think I have about 60 Derby prospects on there with detailed info about each. Free.
DG: Give us, if you can, some examples of past Kentucky Derby winners/horses that placed that were supported by your service.
DD: The Downey Profile focuses on a Top Four, thus usually eliminating 80% of Derby starters. Over my 34-year study, the winner has come from that Top Four 26 times. I applied the factors and weights I use back over the last 34 years to determine that.
DD: Some examples: Thunder Gulch was number one in the Downey Profile and won at 24-1. Monarchos was number one and was 10-1. Funny Cide and Empire Maker were both in the Top Four. Smarty Jones was number four and my pick. Barbaro was number three. Giacomo is more complicated, but he figured. To read more, go here: http://thedowneyprofile.com/Membership
DG: How have you done as a bettor in the past when tackling the Kentucky Derby?
DD: I've made money.
DG: What betting strategies, if you can give us that, do you employ when tackling the Derby?
DD: I always bet too many tickets. It's easier to pick horses than it is to put together tickets. The best thing to do is not bet too many tickets. I swear this is the year I'll reform.
DG: Any humorous stories, or past bloopers when publishing the Downey Profile?
DD: I went out of my way to diss Teuflesberg and Officer Rocket in the Southwest Stakes, and they ran one-two. One emailer thought that was pretty humorous.
DG: What is the hardest thing about running your own horse racing website?
DD: Not talking about it too much to my wife.
DG: The best part?
DD: Talking about it to my wife.
Part III: The Railbird!
DG: Best day at the track?
DD: I wasn't at the track. I was in Pittsburg with baseball buddies. I hit the Sarava-Medaglia d'Oro Belmont Stakes exacta twice and had them both across the board several times. Medaglia d'Oro was number one in the Downey Profile and went off at 16-1 in the Belmont. I had seen Sarava win the Sir Barton on the Preakness undercard and was impressed with him. I stuck with him even though he was 70-1.
DD: I don't bet pick sixes, so I can't brag about a mega-hit.
DG: Worst?
DD: Who talks about their worst days at the track?
DG: Have you ever owned any horses?
DD: Yep.
DG: Names, and how did they do?
DD: I loved Captain Bodgit, so I bought in on Rodman with Team Valor. They paid $500,000 for him even though he was a gelding. He was going to be a Derby horse. The first time he raced for us was the Remsen. He sustained a spiral condylar fracture, and that was it. His life was saved. He was sent to New Bolton Center, the same place Barbaro was taken. I still have the vet reports.
DD: I've been in on two claiming horse partnerships. Techno Vision was a filly that won five of 16 races, three of them at Churchill Downs. Crisis Situation almost broke Zippy Chippy's record for losing maiden races. The only reason he didn't was the trainer took him off the track.
DG: If a guy wants to dedicate himself to being lifetime railbird, what do you recommend?
DD: If you bet much, pick your races. Be disciplined. You can't go out there just to have a good time.
DG: Favorite music?
DD: Loved the Doors. Loved Jimi. Loved the old Stax/Volt gang from Memphis. There are many others. Right now, I'm listening to a Van Halen greatest hits CD, and a George Jones CD. Favorite song George wrote: "The Race Is On."
DD: George's life has been a country song. Actually, they say Eddie just went into rehab, so I think Eddie and George have some things in common.
DG: Best concert?
DD: Rolling Stones, Knoxville, tenth row center, 1971.
DG: Blondes, brunettes, or redheads?
DD: Brunettes.
DG: Favorite horse ever?
DD: Smarty Jones, because he was the boss.
DG: Best race ever?
DD: 2002 Belmont Stakes, because I won good money.
DG: Best Kentucky Derby ever?
DD: Every one of them.
DG: What are some problems facing horse racing?
DD: Horse racing was biggest back in the day when everyone had connections to horses, or remembered having connections to horses. Now everyone has cars, so car racing is big.
DG: Solutions?
DD: I'm afraid cars are here to stay.
DG: Should Churchill Downs install a synthetic track?
DD: The question is not whether they should, but whether they'll have a choice. At some point, I don't think they'll have much choice--unless problems with rubber tracks surface.
DG: Now that Barbaro won off a 5-week layoff, do you think we will being seeing more so-called “patterns” being broken like only 2-race preps, not racing as a two-year old, etc.?
DD: I hope not. It takes the fun out of the whole exercise. All we need now is for horses to start winning the Kentucky Derby, and everybody says, "I never saw him race before." And then he's retired to stud.
DG: Will we ever see another Triple Crown winner?
DD: Yes. I think it could happen this year. I have no rational basis for saying that. It's just a gut feeling.
DG: Thanks Dick!!!
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